Technical

Figures converted from PLN at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.

Price Snapshot

Price History with 50/200-Day Moving Averages

Price is above the 200-day SMA by 42% — an extended uptrend. KGH traded in a $18–43 range from mid-2022 through mid-2025, then broke out explosively in October 2025, peaking near $102 in late January 2026. The subsequent correction bottomed around $70 in March and price is now recovering toward the January highs.

Relative Performance (Rebased to 100)

No benchmark comparison available — KGHM's primary listing is on the WSE (Warsaw) and the available data is from the illiquid US OTC ticker. SPY or WIG20 daily data was not staged for direct comparison. On a standalone basis, KGH spent 2022–2025 underwater relative to its April 2021 starting point, only reclaiming par in late October 2025. The subsequent rally took it to 207 (more than doubling) before correcting back to 167 — still a 67% gain over five years.

Momentum: RSI and MACD

Near-term momentum is bullish. RSI sits at 68 — strong but not yet overbought. The MACD histogram flipped positive in early April 2026 after a deep negative spell from February through March, consistent with the price recovery off the March lows. The pattern mirrors October 2025: a MACD surge preceded the breakout rally. Whether it repeats depends on whether copper prices cooperate.

Volume and Conviction

Volume data is not meaningful here. OTC average daily volume is under 500 shares; the "313x spike" on 2025-09-15 was only 10,789 shares — trivial for a company with a multi-billion-dollar market cap on its primary Warsaw listing. Volume conviction analysis cannot be performed on this data. Any attempt to draw conclusions from OTC volume would be misleading. Investors should refer to WSE (KGH.WA) volume data for conviction signals.

Volatility Regime

Current 30-day realized vol is 47% — at the 62nd percentile of the full history, in the "normal" band (the historical p20 is 14%, p80 is 66%). Volatility spiked to 88% in March 2026 during the selloff from the January highs, and has been declining since. Declining vol alongside a recovering price is generally constructive — the market is calming down after digesting the massive Q4 2025 rally.

Technical Scorecard

Net score: +3 out of 6. Stance: Bullish on 3–6 month horizon, with caveats.

KGHM's price action tells a clear story: a multi-year base ($18–43 from mid-2022 through mid-2025) resolved to the upside with explosive force beginning October 2025, driven by the copper supercycle thesis. The golden cross in August 2025 preceded the breakout. The Jan-to-March 2026 correction ($102 to $70, about 31%) was sharp but held well above the 200-day SMA and appears to have bottomed, with price now recovering toward $87. Momentum has re-engaged bullishly. The two levels that matter: a sustained close above $102 (the January 2026 high) would confirm the next leg higher; a breakdown below $70 (the March 2026 low and approximate 50% retracement of the Oct-Jan rally) would signal the rally is exhausting and a deeper correction toward the 200-day around $61 is in play. The primary analytical limitation is that all available data comes from the illiquid US OTC ticker — investors should cross-reference against the WSE-listed KGH for authoritative price action.